Peramalan Harga Gabah Kering Giling (GKG) Menggunakan Teknik Bootstrap-Recurrent Pada Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)

PURBONINGTYAS,INDAH, B2A017042 (2021) Peramalan Harga Gabah Kering Giling (GKG) Menggunakan Teknik Bootstrap-Recurrent Pada Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). Sarjana / Sarjana Terapan (S1/D4) thesis, ["eprint_fieldopt_institution_UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH SEMARANG" not defined].

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Abstract

Milled Dried Unhulled Grain (GKG) is one of the agricultural commodities which is useful as a food ingredient whose production always increases from time to time. Forecasting the price of GKG is very important in order to provide an overview of the projection of the price of unhulled rice for farmers because the majority of Indonesians who live as farmers. The average price of GKG fluctuates following seasonal patterns and trends. The method that can be used to estimate the price of GKG is Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). The SSA method is able to decompose the time series pattern into a simple form and has a fairly good prediction accuracy. This study uses the SSA method with bootstrap-recurrent forecasting techniques to be able to see the confidence interval of the forecasting results. Based on the analysis, it is obtained that the correct SSA model in this case is bootstrap 1000 times with windows length 7 and r = 7 parameters resulting in a MAPE value of 4.282746% with the forecast results tend to increase.

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