METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT-WINTERS (TES-HW) UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH PERSENTASE PENDUDUK MISKIN DI KABUPATEN/KOTA PROVINSI ACEH

ULYA, MUFIDATUL, B2A018010 (2022) METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT-WINTERS (TES-HW) UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH PERSENTASE PENDUDUK MISKIN DI KABUPATEN/KOTA PROVINSI ACEH. Sarjana / Sarjana Terapan (S1/D4) thesis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Mufidatul Ulya, 2022, Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters (TES-HW) Untuk Peramalan Jumlah Persentase Penduduk Miskin Di Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Aceh, Skripsi, Program Studi Statistika, Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Pembimbing: I. Indah Manfaati Nur, M.Si., II. Prizka Rismawati Arum, S.Si, M.Stat. Penelitian ini menggunakan data persentase penduduk miskin di kabupaten/kota provinsi Aceh. Berdasarkan data BPS provinsi Aceh, provinsi Aceh menempati posisi pertama di pulau Sumatera dan berada diposisi ke empat nasional dengan jumlah persentase penduduk miskin tertinggi. Apabila penurunan presentase penduduk miskin belum signifikan atau justru mengalami kenaikan maka akan mengakibatkan kesenjangan masyarakat sehingga diperlukan adanya peramalan. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters (TES-HW). Tujuannya yaitu mengetahui nilai persentase penduduk miskin dimasa yang akan datang dan dapat membuat rencana serta kebijakan dalam mengatasi fenomena kemiskinan di kabupaten/kota provinsi Aceh. Didapatkan model terbaik dalam metode TES-HW ialah model Multiplicative dengan nilai parameter paling optimum sebesar α = 0.0581132, β = 0.05043586, dan γ = 1 dan nilai MSE 0.3097 dan RMSE 0.556507. Hasil peramalan presentase penduduk miskin di kabupaten/kota provinsi Aceh selama 5 tahun mendatang dari tahun 2022 hingga 2026 mengalami fluktuasi setiap tahunnya. Aceh Singkil menempati posisi tertinggi dan Kota Banda Aceh menempati posisi terrendah. Didapatkan tingkat akurasi peramalan di semua wilayah kabupaten/kota provinsi Aceh ialah sangat akurat, karena nilai MAPE<10% Wilayah Aceh Timur paling baik tingkat keakuratannya dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 3.328243%. Kata Kunci: Penduduk Miskin, Peramalan, Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters.   ABSTRACT Mufidatul Ulya, 2022, Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters (TES-HW) Method for Forecasting the Percentage of Poor Population by District/City in Aceh Province, Thesis, Statistics Study Program, University of Muhammadiyah Semarang, Supervisor: I. Indah Manfaati Nur, M.Si., II. Prizka Rismawati Arum, S.Si, M.Stat. This study uses data on the percentage of poor people in the districts/cities of Aceh province. Based on BPS data from the Aceh province, Aceh province occupies the first position on the island of Sumatra and is in the fourth position nationally with the highest percentage of poor people. If the decrease in the percentage of the poor is not significant or even increases, it will result in community inequality so that forecasting is needed. The method used in this study is the Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters (TES-HW) method. The goal is to find out the percentage value of the poor in the future and be able to make plans and policies to overcome the phenomenon of poverty in the districts/cities of Aceh province. The best model obtained in the TES-HW method is the Multiplicative model with the most optimum parameter values of = 0.0581132, = 0.05043586, and = 1 and MSE values are 0.3097 and RMSE 0.556507. The results of forecasting the percentage of poor people in the districts/cities of Aceh province for the next 5 years from 2022 to 2026 fluctuate every year. Aceh Singkil occupies the highest position and Banda Aceh City occupies the lowest position. It was found that the level of forecasting accuracy in all districts/cities of Aceh province was very accurate, because the MAPE value <10% East Aceh region had the best accuracy level with a MAPE value of 3.328243%. Keywords: Poor People, Forecasting, Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters.

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