PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH DENGAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES HANEEN TALAL JASIM BERBASIS ALGORITMA NOVEL

UTAMI, SEPTI WINDA, B2A018025 (2022) PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH DENGAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES HANEEN TALAL JASIM BERBASIS ALGORITMA NOVEL. Sarjana / Sarjana Terapan (S1/D4) thesis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Utami, Septi Winda. 2022. Peramalan Nilai Ekspor Provinsi Jawa Tengah Dengan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Haneen Talal Jasim Berbasis Algoritma Novel. Skripsi, Program Studi Statistika, Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang. Pembimbing: I. Indah Manfaati Nur, M.Si., II. M. Al Haris, M.Si. Ekspor berperan penting dalam perekonomian suatu daerah. Ekspor dapat digambarkan melalui nilai ekspor, yaitu nilai berupa uang yang merupakan hasil dari penjualan barang/jasa ke luar negeri. Nilai ekspor tentunya perlu diramalkan untuk merumuskan target pertumbuhan ekonomi dan menetapkan kebijakan yang tepat dalam perekonomian di suatu daerah. Nilai ekspor dapat diramalkan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Haneen Talal Jasim berbasis Algoritma Novel karena data berupa deret waktu dan memiliki kelebihan tidak memerlukan asumsi data dalam proses perhitungannya. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah meramalkan nilai ekspor Provinsi Jawa Tengah di masa yang akan datang serta mendapatkan tingkat akurasi peramalannya menggunakan MAPE. Penerapan metode Fuzzy Time Series Haneen Talal Jasim berbasis Algoritma Novel yang diaplikasikan pada data nilai ekspor di Provinsi Jawa Tengah memperoleh nilai MAPE sebesar 11,653% sehingga dapat dikatakan baik untuk meramalkan nilai ekspor di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Kata Kunci: Ekspor, Fuzzy Time Series Haneen Talal Jasim, MAPE   ABSTRACT Utami, Septi Winda. 2022. Forecasting Export Value of Central Java Province Using Haneen Talal Jasim's Fuzzy Time Series Method Based a Novel Algorithms. Thesis, Statistics Study Program, University of Muhammadiyah Semarang. Supervisor: I. Indah Manfaati Nur, M.Si., II. M. Al Haris, M.Si. Exports play an important role in the economy of a region. Exports can be described by the value of exports, namely the value in the form of money which is the result of the sale of goods/services abroad. Export value certainly needs to be forecasted in order to formulate economic growth targets and establish appropriate policies in the economy in a region. Export value can be predicted using Haneen Talal Jasim's Fuzzy Time Series method based on Novel Algorithm because the data is a time series and has the advantage of not requiring data assumptions in the calculation process. The purpose of this research is to predict the export value of Central Java Province in the future and to get the level of forecasting accuracy using MAPE. The application of the Haneen Talal Jasim Fuzzy Time Series method based on the Novel Algorithm applied to export value data in Central Java Province obtained a MAPE value of 11.653% so that it can be said to be good for forecasting the export value in Central Java Province. Keyword: Export, Haneen Talal Jasim's Fuzzy Time Series, MAPE

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